The year now is 2020! Happy new year! And a happy new decade!
I like the sound of 2020, like clear vision. Perfect time to share some predictions for 2020 and beyond – on tech, on politics and other macro trends.
There are some positives and there are some negatives. So here they are in no particular order.
1. There will be a big tech break-up or not quite?
Prediction number one – there will be big tech breakup (or not quite?). There will be some noise in the system to break up big tech – companies like Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc. And there could also be some possible class action against Amazon for copying other brands.
The government, they will end up scoring, I would say a symbolic victory. And most of the tech companies will be able to work around these legal changes. The result – everyone wins except consumers. Because these companies will continue their march towards complete world domination and the politicians, they will be able to score some brownie points.
2.Trump wins in 2020
Prediction number two – Trump wins in 2020. Primarily because Democrats will not have a strong leader and will not have clear messaging. This is nothing new for Democrats because, except Obama, they’ve not really had a great leader with a clear strategy, great communication and mass appeal in the last 20 years.
This is not exactly a tech prediction, but given that a lot of our politics is now influenced by the tech we use, this is also a tech prediction.
3. The US avoids recession in 2020
Prediction number three – the US avoids recession in 2020. I predict either a good year or a great year. And assuming Trump wins again, we may actually see a melt-up in the stock market. Having said that, we’ve gone sort of the longest time in history without at least a 20% pullback. Which means the major stock correction is around the corner. It’s not a matter of if, but it’s a matter of when. Nobody knows when this pullback will happen. So the investing strategy that works all the time is time in the market is better than timing the market.
4. AI creates new jobs in 2020 and beyond
Prediction number four – AI creates new jobs in 2020 and beyond. Many of these jobs will be created as a result of AI’s evolution. These jobs will have brand new titles and have completely new job descriptions. A lot of the knowledge workers and tech workers essentially will become the trainers and curators of Artificial Intelligence.
As AI goes from general-purpose, the AI that we see as in Alexa, Google Home, and Siri, it will evolve into more of a purpose-built AI. We will see the need to hire more people from the industry that have subject matter experts who can train these AI engines.So these will be brand new opportunities created through AI.
Prediction number five – higher inequality. Automation and AI will start to create some displacement of workers, not only in blue-collar (although that’s going to be a lot of them) but also in white-collar workers. The gig economy that we’re seeing through Uber and other platforms, it will start to spread to white-collar workers as well. Digitization will move all atoms to bits and so anything that can be digitized will be digitized.
So if there are jobs out there that involve acting as an intermediary or have sort of low value repeated tasks, those will likely get disrupted. So the displacement in jobs is not to displays the entire job. But it will likely carve out a lot of the tasks that are repeatable. A low value is of intermediary nature.
6. From Coastland to Heartland
Prediction number six – from Coastland to Heartland. The movement of knowledge workers from the Coastland to the Heartland gains momentum in 2020. Case in point, if you’re looking for a one way you haul, it costs about four times for people to move from California to Texas, then to move from Texas to California. And people on the coasts are really dealing with a lot of issues. They are facing a rising cost of living, including real estate, among other things. They are facing bad infrastructure, their traffic commutes are getting worse because of congestion. And the general quality of life versus the price that they’re paying is not adding up. So a lot of these are driving people to move and the new tax law, it’s going to be the last straw to break the camel’s back.
This will be the year when people file for taxes. They really started to understand the impact of the new tax law on their take-home pay. More people will make the move from the coast, both those coasts to the Heartland in 2020. You know, one interesting nature of this is because of this move, many of the Heartland states, they will turn from red to purple to blue over a period of time. Politically speaking, of course.
7. Startups focus on profitability
Prediction number seven – startups focus on profitability. You know, when we started talking about coastland, it’s also important to talk about what’s going on within the coast – the startup scene. After the WeWork Debacle, the VC community is now asking for profitability from startups. So it will no longer be the mantra of growing at all costs, but it will be about profitable growth.
And this will throw a wrench in the way startups are organized and how they go to the market and so these are very interesting times ahead in terms of how the startups pivot and they cross the chasm of profitable growth in both the enterprise market as well as the consumer market.
8. SaaS organizational evolution
Prediction number eight – SaaS organizational evolution. Would this new direction towards profitability? A lot of startups and established tech companies will have to rethink their operating models. This means there will be some evolution in the way SaaS companies acquire, retain, and renewing customers.
We’ve already seen a lot of these subscription companies move away from the traditional funnel type of way to work with customers to a flywheel model of continuously acquiring, retaining and renewing customers. And because of that, SaaS companies will go through some evolution. They will organize their marketing, sales, customer success, and other functions differently. It’s likely that we will see some hybrid organizations emerge out of this evolution. Very exciting stuff.
9. New non-US unicorns
Prediction number nine – new non-US unicorns. The higher penetration is already bringing about more people online than ever before in Asia. And especially that’s true in India and China. The first unicorns are already in play. Didi Chuxing, Kuaishou, Paytm, Grab, OYO, Ola – all of these companies are already unicorns.
In 2020 and beyond, we will see far more unicorn startups. Because software starts to eat the world in Asian markets across multiple industries. So they will be eating the software, will eat the market and transport, finance, food, e-commerce, real estate, infrastructure, and many other industries. So watch out for those Asian unicorns.
10. The first commercially successful climate change company
Prediction number ten – we will see the emergence of the first commercially successful climate change company. In 2020 and beyond, we will likely see the first company that will address climate change. It will have great technology and will have a commercial business model that can scale rapidly.
It could be something like removing plastics from oceans and using that plastic to create highways. I don’t know. Or it might be creating more artificial hair for me, that would be useful, right? Well, there will be a company that will crack the code in terms of making commercially successful climate change technology and that will pave the way for other companies to follow. We will address climate change without taxing everyone to death.
Did I mention 10 predictions? I lied. I’ve got a couple more. What are you going to do? Close the blog? No, you’re going to keep reading because the FOMO is too strong on this one.
11. The death of Blockchain
Prediction number eleven – the death of Blockchain. Blockchain and its current form will not get massive adoption. There aren’t many use cases. Quite frankly, blockchain is a threat to governments, banks, and other industries. Why would they use it unless it changes? So in most B2B organizations, they will say ‘no, thank you’ to blockchain in its current form until there are better use cases of blockchain. Sorry, blockchain!
12. Subscription business model
Prediction number twelve – a subscription business model. In 2020 and beyond, many industries will turn to the subscription business model. So it’s not just what happens in tech. In tech, we’ve already seen software as a service (SaaS) become the prevalent subscription business model. But now we will see other industries taking up the subscription business model.
Case in point, the launch of Disney plus. Disney plus recently launched and now it has 10 million subscriptions. Expect subscription products to become the norm in other industries – it could be financial services, consumer goods, manufacturing, and many others.
Prediction number thirteen – healthcare. In 2020 we will finally see the introduction of a competitive health plan outside of the traditional insurance companies and the government. It will likely come from a diamond Bezos buffet and associates. It will include competitive pricing and it’s likely that it will come with tracking of your health through devices and tracking off your grocery bill. So the more you exercise, the healthier you eat, the lower is your insurance premium. Will it be a reality? Well, a guy can dream, right?
Those were the top predictions for 2020 and beyond across tech, politics, and other macro trends. Please subscribe to get more industry knowledge and leadership videos. Please like and share. And comment, especially if you violently agreed or violently disagreed with me. A happy new year and have a fantastic 2020.